Four layers, one price. The beef price chart does not tell a single story. The 2011–2015 rise was genuine physical scarcity: drought liquidated the cattle herd to a 70-year low, and prices rose because animals did not exist. The 2020 spike was different: cattle were abundant but meatpacking plants closed; four companies control 85% of slaughter capacity, so a pandemic disruption propagated directly to retail. The 2022–2026 compound surge stacks a real bind (herd now at 74-year low), a biological shock (New World screwworm cutting Mexican feeder cattle imports), and policy-manufactured scarcity (tariffs blocking imports that could ease the real bind). The full analysis separates these components and predicts which falls first.
Sources: BLS Average Retail Prices, series APU0000703112 (100% ground beef, US city average); annual averages are approximate composites and may run above the narrowest BLS ground-beef series; 2008–2023 via in2013dollars.com; 2024–2026 computed from BLS monthly data. 2026 is a partial-year average (Jan–Jun). The 2020 annual average masks a spring retail spike above $6/lb in some markets.
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