01
Scarcity Isn't Flat
Why the science of scarcity has been incurious about scarcity's own structure, and what changes when you treat scarcities as ranked rather than as one undifferentiated thing.
PublishedThe Theory, One Step at a Time
The treatise is the whole argument at once. This is the same argument unpacked in order, each post taking one move and making it plain. Read top to bottom, or jump to the piece you need.
02
How a Boom Quietly Promotes Money to the Top
Minsky's hedge, speculative, and Ponzi postures, and why a long calm is the thing that builds the fragility behind the next scramble for cash.
Published03
The Counterfeit
How a shortage of money puts on the costume of a shortage of goods, and why full warehouses can sit beside real hunger.
Published04
Is Money's Speed the Lifeblood?
Velocity is the lifeblood, but it is a symptom and not a cause. Hoarding and slowdown are one event seen from two sides.
Published05
The Engine and the Surface
Fisher's nine-link chain as the engine of the descent, the Phillips curve as the surface it shows up on, and why that curve keeps breaking.
Published06
Two Faces of the Same Collapse
Debt-deflation and stagflation are not opposites. They are one descent in two monetary regimes, and the phase plane shows why.
Published07
The Clock Is the Enemy
Acute versus chronic scarcity. Why the speed of the rescue decides whether a fake shortage hardens into a real one.
Published08
Watch the Canaries
Housing and autos are credit before they are goods, which makes them the first place a descent shows. The bridge from theory to the dispatches.
PublishedThe full argument is already complete in the treatise. These posts are the unhurried version.
Read the treatise